Characterizing the Unmitigated and Mitigated Risks Associated with Pathways of Movement of Exotic Forest Pathogens in the USA
Susan D. Cohen1
The risk matrix method offers a possible approach to evaluating the unmitigated and mitigated risks associated with pathways of introduction and spread of forest pathogens in the USA. Using a risk matrix approach, pathway risks can be identified, impacts assessed for each risk and likelihood values can be assigned to each pathway. Likelihood values may range from one through five, with one representing the lowest risk and five the highest risk. All pathway risks can then be prioritized based on impact and likelihood assessments. The risk matrix approach also includes handling risk dependencies. If dependencies are considered, risks are ranked based on three criteria: impact, likelihood of occurrence and number of dependencies. Unmitigated pathway risk is then based on the likelihood risk of the pathway x the impact of the pathway. Mitigation options are then applied to unmitigated values and rated as to effectiveness in reducing the pathway risk. This risk matrix approach may be appropriate for characterizing the potential risk posed by the pathways for movement of Phytophthora ramorum, the pathogen responsible for Sudden Oak Death.
1USDA APHIS-PPQ-ISPM, University of Minnesota, Dept. Plant Pathology, St. Paul, Minnesota 55108
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