Modeling the Spread of Phytophthora ramorum: Integrating Spatial Data on Abiotic Conditions, Plant Community Structure, and Population Genetics of Host Species
Ross Meentemeyer1, Hall Cushman2, James Christmann2, Nathan Rank2, Rich Whitkus2, and Dave Rizzo3
We are researching the ecological and genetic factors that influence the spread of the SOD pathogen, Phytophthora ramorum, in the Sonoma Valley of northern California. The multidisciplinary work uses computer mapping technologies in combination with fieldwork and DNA analysis to integrate spatial data on host genetics, community structure, and environmental variation with investigations of mechanisms underlying spread of P. ramorum. We aim to accomplish the following: 1) Develop a statistically based model that predicts spatial patterns of SOD risk on the landscape, based on relationships among critical environmental factors. These include proximity to infected locations, genetic background of foliar host species, plant community structure, landscape structure, abiotic conditions, and anthropogenic activities. 2) Develop a mechanistic model that predicts spatial patterns of pathogen activity and host susceptibility based on empirical studies of pathogen dispersal between hosts and environmental conditions conducive to pathogen reproduction and dispersal.3) Develop a integrated model of SOD spread based on the most predictive components of the statistical and mechanistic models. To accomplish these goals, numerous field plots are being established throughout Sonoma Valley. In each plot, we are quantifying plant community structure, recording weather conditions, sampling for P. ramorum infection status, and collecting samples for genetic analysis. These data will be linked with high-resolution aircraft imagery and integrated into a GIS database for spatial modeling. This work is funded by the National Science Foundation for four years.
1Sonoma State University, Department of Geography, 1801 E. Cotati Avenue, Rohnert Park, CA 94928; (707) 664-2558; meenteme@sonoma.edu
2Sonoma State University, Department of Biology, 1801 E. Cotati Avenue, Rohnert Park, CA 94928
3University of California, Department of Plant Pathology, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616
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